Warren Buffett speaks to University of Georgia students

Innovación y Desempleo

 

EuskadiTM

"Reinventing Economics" by Robert J. Shiller

The widespread failure of economists to forecast the financial crisis that erupted in 2008 has much to do with faulty models. This lack of sound models meant that economic policymakers and central bankers received no warning of what was to come. 

As George Akerlof and I argue in our recent book Animal Spirits , the current financial crisis was driven by speculative bubbles in the housing market, the stock market, and energy and other commodities markets. Bubbles are caused by feedback loops: rising speculative prices encourage optimism, which encourages more buying, and hence further speculative price increases – until the crash comes. 

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The New Conversation: taking Social Media from talk to action

The exponential growth of social media, from blogs, Facebook and Twitter to LinkedIn and YouTube, offers organizations the chance to join a conversation with millions of customers around the globe every day.

This promise is why nearly two-thirds of the 2,100 companies who participated in a recent survey by Harvard Business Review Analytic Services said they are either currently using social media channels or have social media plans in the works. But many still say social media is an experiment, as they try to understand how to best use the different channels, gauge their effectiveness, and integrate social media into their strategy.

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Design Thinking

Thinking like a designer can transform the way you develop products, services, processes and even strategy.

by Tim Brown

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Un estudio exploratorio sobre la generación de experiencias afectivo-sensoriales a través de los personajes de marca

La práctica y la teoría publicitaria han demostrado que el uso de los personajes de marca en las campañas de comunicación es una estrategia efectiva para crear una imagen positiva de la marca y una conexión personal con los consumidores. Actualmente, el interés tanto académico como empresarial por buscar nuevas vías de diferenciación más experienciales ha renovado el atractivo que tienen los elementos identificadores de la marca, entre ellos los personajes, como estímulos generadores de experiencias. Este trabajo analiza cómo las experiencias sensoriales y afectivas se ven afectadas ante la presencia del personaje de marca en función de la familiaridad con la marca, la implicación con el producto, y la ausencia de relación social del consumidor. De una manera muy preliminar y exploratoria los resultados obtenidos son una primera evidencia empírica del potencial que tienen los personajes como vía de diferenciación no funcional de la marca.

Universia Business Review 

Mª Elena Delgado-Ballester, Estela Fernández-Sabiote, Agueda Honrubia-Pardo 

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World Economic Outlook: Hopes, Realities, and Risks - April 2013

Global economic prospects have improved again, but the bumpy recovery and skewed macroeconomic policy mix in advanced economies are complicating policymaking in emerging market economies. Chapter 3 examines the prospects for inflation, particularly because inflation was remarkably stable in the wake of the Great Recession and, in fact, has become less responsive to cyclical conditions. Chapter 4 examines whether today’s fast-growing, dynamic low-income countries are likely to maintain their momentum and avoid the reversals that afflicted many such countries in the past.

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Do people resist change?

Resetting the compass. Navigating success in deal-making for mature market sellers and high growth market buyers

The geography of deal-making is changing fast. Over the last five years we have seen more deal value flow from the largest high growth markets (HGM) to mature market economies than in the other direction. Between 2008 and 2012 HGM companies invested US$161 billion into mature market companies, outstripping the opposite flow of US$151 billion. In 2012 alone, HGM companies closed deals for mature market targets worth US$32.6 billion, almost three times the amount they invested in 2005. 

We see these this shift in dealflow direction as the start of something bigger, that will not just bring a much needed boost to the global M&A market but that can stimulate growth for both mature and HGM market companies alike. In this report, we look at how dealflows are changing and we also consider how new types of HGM investors are turning to M&A and the factors driving their investment choices. Large and mid-sized private companies have now joined the state-backed investors who were among the first to acquire mature market targets. HGM investors’ scope is also widening, with HGM to mature market M&A activity ranging from energy, raw materials and engineering to media, retail and consumer goods companies.

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The Henry Fund: 2012 Annual Report

The Henry Fund, named for its two founding benefactors, was established in the spring of 1994 to provide University of Iowa MBA students with a forum to blend academic rigor with real-world portfolio management experience. Henry Royer, Henry Tippie, and the University of Iowa Foundation contributed the initial $50,000 investment that established the Henry Fund.

The Henry Fund is an equity portfolio listed as an outside investment by The University of Iowa Foundation. The Fund is required to meet the same basic performance guidelines as equity accounts in the long-term investment pool of The University of Iowa Foundation. In keeping with these requirements, managers of the Henry Fund seek to achieve the highest level of return while assuming risks similar to those of the S&P 500 index. The Henry Fund team, therefore, recommends a targeted portfolio of stocks from a broad set of industries, investing in well-managed, profitable businesses without unnecessarily exposing the fund to economic or industry risks.

The Fund is divided into three separate accounts: active, passive, and cash. The active account, comprising approximately 93.4 % of the Fund’s assets, currently consists of equity positions in 32 companies. This account represents the primary measurement of the manager’s stock selection ability. The passive account (6.6%) consists of holdings in a financial sector ETF (3.5%) and a consumer sector ETF (3.1%). The Henry Fund scholarship payments necessitate that The Fund keep cash in a money market account in order to meet its annual commitment. This account also receives dividends and is used to pay brokerage fees and other expenses incurred during the year.

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Global Trends 2030: Alternative Worlds

Global Trends 2030 is intended to stimulate thinking about the rapid and vast geopolitical changes characterizing the world today and possible global trajectories over the next 15 years. As with the NIC’s previous Global Trends reports, we do not seek to predict the future—which would be an impossible feat—but instead provide a framework for thinking about possible futures and their implications.

Valuing Stocks the Warren Buffett Way

In this article, we provide an overview of Buffettology as a method of identifying promising businesses. In addition, we present a Buffett valuation spreadsheet that uses various valuation models to measure the attractiveness of stocks passing the preliminary screens.

Dossier de valor de la Distribución Farmacéutica en España. Aportación y costes

La Directiva 92/25/CEE define la distribución al por mayor de medicamentos como “la actividad que consiste en obtener, conservar o exportar medicamentos, excluido el despacho de medicamentos al público; estas actividades serán realizadas con fabricantes y sus depositarios, importadores, otros distribuidores al por mayor o con los farmacéuticos o personas autorizadas o facultadas por el Estado Miembro de que se trate, para dispensar medicamentos al público”

La Distribución Farmacéutica ejerce principalmente dos funciones clave:

• Garantizar el acceso a todos los medicamentos y productos sanitarios, acortando distancias y el tiempo de servicio para evitar roturas de stock. 
• Además de la función logística, la DF presta una serie de servicios complementarios como almacenaje, asesoramiento, formación continuada o equipamiento, que aportan un valor añadido a todos los stakeholders del sector.

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Innovation Union Scoreboard 2013

Innovation performance in the EU has improved year on year in spite of the continuing economic crisis, but the innovation divide between Member States is widening. While the most innovative countries have further improved their performance, others have shown a lack of progress. The overall ranking within the EU remains relatively stable, with Sweden at the top, followed by Germany, Denmark and Finland. Estonia, Lithuania and Latvia are the countries that have most improved since last year.  Drivers of innovation growth in the EU include SMEs and the commercialisation of innovations, together with excellent research systems.

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Pharma Survey 2013

El segundo informe KPMG sobre la “Situación de la industria farmacéutica en España” tiene como objetivo reflejar las preocupaciones actuales y las perspectivas de futuro que comparten los directivos del sector en España en un momento de gran incertidumbre y en un proceso de rápida transformación y reconversión. 

Los cambios regulatorios han tenido un fuerte impacto en las ventas netas de productos farmacéuticos, según afirma la gran mayoría de los directivos encuestados, que señalan a los reales decretos aprobados en los últimos años en España como factores causantes de esta disminución de las ventas.

Warren Buffett gave a talk to MBA students at The University of Florida in 1998

Allies and Adversaries: 2013 BCG Global Challengers

Emerging markets have become the world’s economic engines. They are large and becoming larger, thanks to annual GDP growth exceeding 6 percent and a rapidly growing class of consumers with disposable income.

These markets have become highly prized by companies everywhere, not just for their growth but also as sources of talent, capital, and companies. Over the past five years, more than 1,000 companies headquartered in emerging markets have reached at least $1 billion in annual sales. Many of these are content to focus on their home market, while others are expanding abroad. And many of those that are going overseas aspire to be global leaders in their industries. These are the global challengers. They are the companies that will shape the global economy over the next decade.

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Does the EU Suffer from a Democratic Deficit?

The rejection of the Lisbon Treaty by the Irish electorate has given new vigour to the debate on the European Union’s widely perceived democratic defi cit. Does the EU indeed have a serious democracy problem? What are the options open to the European political leadership and which of these should be acted upon?

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Top 10 risks and opportunities in 2013 and beyond

Ernst&Young ha publicado el estudio Business Pulse: Top 10 risks and opportunities in 2013 and beyond que describe cuáles pueden ser los 10 principales riesgos globales, para poder mitigarlos, y maximizar las oportunidades para responder a la persistente crisis actual y adecuarse a la globalización, ya que ha contribuido a intensificar la competencia.

 

A partir de una encuesta realizada a ejecutivos de  multinacionales de diferentes sectores a nivel mundial, presenta una serie de radares que evalúan diferentes grupos de indicadores, desde  los aspectos financieros, estratégicos, y de competitividad a nivel de costes, entre otros: con una previsión hasta 2015.

OECD Sovereign Borrowing Outlook

El déficit de las administraciones públicas en el área de la OCDE en su conjunto se estima que alcanzó el 5,5% del PIB en 2012, lo que equivale a alrededor de 2,6 billones de dólares. Se prevé que disminuya al 4,6% del PIB en 2013, lo que equivale a unos 2,3 billones de dólares.        

Los gobiernos de los países de la OCDE tendrán que refinanciar alrededor de 30% de la deuda pendiente a largo plazo en los próximos tres años. El promedio de aumento de la tasa de interés a largo plazo se espera que aumente a alrededor del 4,0% en 2013, frente al 3,8% en 2009.

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El Mundo en el 2050: oportunidades y desafíos

La economía mundial está acelerando su proceso de transformación. La crisis financiera internacional está empujando aún más rápido el centro gravedad de la actividad mundial hacia los países emergentes. China superará en 2017 a EEUU como la mayor economía del mundo; India se consolidará como la tercera potencia mundial en 2050; ese mismo año, Brasil desplazará a Japón en la cuarta posición; Rusia se convertirá en la primera economía europea por delante de Alemania y países como México o Indonesia podrían superar a economías como las del Reino Unido o Francia, según el informe elaborado por PwC.

Grupo Catalana Occidente alcanza un resultado atribuido de 200,2 M€

En el ejercicio 2012 el Grupo ha conseguido: 

• Mejorar el margen de solvencia hasta el 497,5% con 1.752,9 M€ de exceso 
• Alcanzar los 200 M€ de resultado atribuido 
• Mantener un excelente ratio combinado: 88,0% en el negocio tradicional y 88,4% en el seguro de crédito gracias al rigor técnico y la austeridad en el gasto 
• Incrementar los ingresos y el volumen de negocio 
• Adquirir un 49% de Plus Ultra Seguros (anteriormente Groupama Seguros) 
• Incrementar un 6,48% la participación en Atradius hasta el 83,2% 
• Conseguir un ROE del 14,0% 
• Mantener la remuneración a los accionistas

Presentación de resultados

Austerity in Small Places

Interest in small countries’ economic policies is usually confined to a small number of specialists. But there are times when small countries’ experiences are interpreted around the world as proof that a certain policy approach works best.

Read article by Daniel Gros

 

 

 

Berkshire Hathaway: Annual Report 2012

In 2012, Berkshire achieved a total gain for its shareholders of $24.1 billion. We used $1.3 billion of that to repurchase our stock, which left us with an increase in net worth of $22.8 billion for the year. The per-share book value of both our Class A and Class B stock increased by 14.4%. Over the last 48 years (that is, since present management took over), book value has grown from $19 to $114,214, a rate of 19.7% compounded annually.

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Finland. A Case Study of Environmental Education in Nature Schools

The article aims to introduce Environmental Education (EE) in Finland and to discuss how it has been taken into account in Finnish nature schools.

How Much Cash Does Your Company Need?

More than you think—a lot more—if yours is a knowledge-based corporation. That’s because you need to provide for intangible liabilities—the investments a company has to make to realize the benefits of its knowledge.

 

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Banking and Debt Crises in Europe: The Dangerous Liaisons?

The potential mutation of the Sub-Prime banking crisis into a sovereign debt one in Euro area countries is investigated. After reviewing the criteria used to measure the debt vulnerability, the balance sheet approach (BSA) is presented in order to illustrate the potential connections between these two types of crises. A graphical analysis yields evidence that at the end 2009 the probability of observing a Euro area country defaulting is less likely than six month before. Nevertheless, the serious threats, which concern Greece and Ireland, do not permit us to exclude the occurrence of a contagious, or selffullling, sovereign debt or currency crises in Euro area in the future.

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Business Elites and Family Capitalism. The Case of the Swiss Metallurgy Industry during the 20th Century

The aim of this contribution is to highlight the long-term evolution of family capitalism in Switzerland during the 20th century. Using a large database on Swiss elites including the members of the 110 largest Swiss firms, this research focuses on a sample of 22 big companies of the machine, electro-technical and metallurgy (thereafter mem) sector, whose board of administration and general directors (634 persons) have been identified for five benchmarks across the 20th century (1910, 1937, 1957, 1980 and 2000). The contribution develops then around two main aims. The first one is to identify the degree of family capitalism for each company and each year, in order to highlight the evolution of this form of corporate governance during the whole century. For this purpose, we take up the distinction made by other authors between family-owned and family-controlled firms. This allows us to show the strong persistence of family capitalism in the mem sector until the 1980s, and then its relative decline at the end of the century. Second, we focus more specifically on the question of the control of the firms, with an analysis of the educational profile of the actors holding a decisive executive function in our 22 companies (195 persons). The main objective of this section is, first, to highlight the long-term evolution of their education, and, second, to determine if the educational profile of the heirs of family firms differs from the one of the “outside directors”. This allows us to show that family members are in general highly qualified, their educational background being quite similar to the one of “outside directors”. In other words, being an heir do not exempt them from getting a qualified training in order to accede to decisive executive functions in the family business.

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European end game

The striking similarity between today’s eurozone situation and the end of Bretton Woods.

Hans Werner Sinn

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Economic activity report for the Scandinavian countries (September 2012)

Norway

• 3.5% growth in GDP for mainland Norway in 2012 and 3% in 2013

• Low unemployment

• Building and construction investment adjusted upwards to 6% growth this year and 5% next year

• House building increasing, 30,000 starts this year, and house prices increasing by 8%

• Construction investment increasing by 8% this year

Sweden

• GDP growth of 1.5% this year and 2% in 2013.

• Unemployment increasing slowly

• Building and construction investment up 0.5% this year and 1% next year

• The housing market weakened during 2011; 18,000 housing starts this year

• Construction market up 5% this year and 1% in 2013

• Weak growth in non-residential building

Denmark

• Zero growth this year, 1.5% in 2013

• Households affected by the need to reduce debt and the unstable house prices.

• A weakened Danish krone and investment by the government will help encourage growth from autumn 2012.

• Building and construction investment still at a low level.

• No improvement in the housing market 

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201 preguntas sobre finanzas

Este documento contiene 201 preguntas que me han formulado en los últimos años alumnos, antiguos alumnos y otras personas (jueces, árbitros, clientes…). Se han recopilado para ayudar al lector a recordar, aclarar, reforzar, matizar y, en su caso, discutir, conceptos útiles en finanzas. La mayoría de las preguntas tienen una respuesta clara, pero otras son matizables. Las preguntas se agrupan en doce apartados: contabilidad y finanzas, flujos, endeudamiento, tasas de descuento, valoración, transacciones, divisas, bolsa e inversión, intangibles, creación de valor, eficiencia, noticias de prensa y crisis 2007… A todas las preguntas les sigue una respuesta breve.

El Anexo 1 contiene un índice de términos y 150 preguntas de autoevaluación. El Anexo 2 contiene comentarios a versiones anteriores de este documento.

Pablo Fernández

This time is different: Behavioural aspects of financial crises

In “This Time is Different: Behavioural Aspects of Financial Crises,” Brandes Institute Advisory Board member Bruce Grantier reviews the book This Time is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly.  With this review, Grantier provides a reminder to investors of the frequency and nature of financial crises and the importance of adhering to enduring investment principles.

Casos de relaciones públicas y comunicación corporativa

"Casos de Relaciones Públicas y Comunicación Corporativa" viene a cubrir un vacío no solo en la bibliografía española, sino también en la internacional. Si bien es cierto que en la bibliografía anglosajona sobre relaciones públicas existen diversos libros que compilan casos reales para ser estudiados y debatidos en las aulas universitarias –un tipo de libro hasta ahora ausente en la bibliografía española–, en cambio no existen textos que presenten una selección de casos para que los estudiantes los resuelvan de acuerdo con las pautas del planteamiento estratégico de las relaciones públicas y la comunicación corporativa.

Jordi Xifra y Ferran Lalueza

La emergencia de los social media en la comunicación empresarial

La aparición de Internet ha supuesto un cambio vertiginoso en la comunicación y a la vez en el modo de relacionarse las personas, tanto en su aspecto personal como en su faceta laboral. A partir de su incorporación en nuestras vidas, se han ido generando diferentes herramientas de comunicación e intercambio de información que poco a poco han ido transformando el panorama actual produciendo un nuevo sistema comunicativo, integrado por la convergencia entre la industria de la comunicación y la cultura de masas, con la informática, las telecomunicaciones de uso cotidiano y la industria del conocimiento.

Dra Estela Bernad

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Investing for grown ups? Value Investing

Who is a value investor? 

The simplistic definition: The lazy definition (used by services to classifyinvestors into growth and value investors) is that anyone who invests in lowPE stocks is a value investor. 

The too broad definition: Another widely used definition of value investorssuggests that they are investors interested in buying stocks for less that whatthey are worth. But that is too broad a definition since you could potentiallycategorize most active investors as value investors on this basis. After all,growth investors also want to buy stocks for less than what they are worth. 

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Dos sentencias con tremendos errores sobre valoración

Este breve documento contiene más de 30 errores en la valoración de una empresa: la mayoría están más relacionados con la ausencia de sensatez que con la técnica.

Pablo Fernández
Profesor de finanzas del IESE

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Causes of corruption in European Countries: History, law, and political stability

This study asks why corruption is increasing in European countries and what are the most important factors that explain such corruption? Although corruption scandals, speeches and reports indicate that corruption persists in European countries no one has tested the causes of corruption in European countries and this study is, to the best of our knowledge, the first to empirically examine the causes of corruption for European countries. Cross-country data for European countries is used to examine the role of legal influences, historical factors and the effect of political stability on corruption. Five key findings are: (1) the effects of the legal strengths on the incidence of corruption are significant with a negative sign - a one-standard-deviation increase in the legal strengths is associated with a decrease in corruption of 0.26 points, 26% of a standard deviation in the corruption index; (2) political stability is a significant determinant of corruption; (3) the interactive effects of history and law are important in reducing corruption levels; (4) the size of government matters in affecting corruption levels; (5) finally, this study shows that an interdisciplinary approach is the most appropriate way to explain corruption.

La estrategia de marketing con causa: Factores determinantes de su éxito

Las iniciativas de marketing con causa se han convertido en una estrategia frecuente para mejorar la imagen de las compañías y aumentar las ventas, atrayendo al consumidor a través de la colaboración con fines sociales. Este estudio analiza los factores que influyen en el éxito de esta estrategia. Los resultados muestran que las empresas deberían elegir causas vinculadas con su actividad principal y con las que el consumidor se sienta implicado. Además, es importante que el consumidor atribuya motivaciones altruistas a estas iniciativas.

Universia Business Review

Isabel Buil, Iguácel Melero y Teresa Montaner

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Contrarian Investment Strategies: An Assessment of the Value Premium in context to Recessions

Contrarian investment strategies have been present for decades, generating superior returns for the investors. Investors who follow the contrarian investment strategy are known as value investors. Value investors follow a strategy where stocks with low prices relative to book value and other measures of fundamental value are bought, to be able to generate abnormal returns.

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Focus India: Economic slowdown. Companies hampered by slow pace of reform

The Indian economic engine is sputtering but continues to run: it suffers from persistent bottlenecks that the country and its companies have to contend in order to grow. Growth was only 5.3% in Q2 2012, its lowest level in nine years. Nonetheless, the effective implementation of reforms, which could open the country to a new cycle of vigorous growth, remains uncertain in view of political paralysis, making companies the potential collateral victims of these gridlocks.

The Coface economic publications

"Focus India" By Nina Delhomme and Constance Boublil (18 October 2012)

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El mercader de Venecia

La burbuja inmobiliaria en España se remonta a la década de los 90, con la rápida generación de enormes excedentes de liquidez en ciertos países antes del euro y su posterior y súbito engullimiento por parte de colectivos de otros países europeos, siempre con lo inmobiliario como telón de fondo. Es obvio que no se resolverá tal problema arañando a los engullidores sus rentas de trabajo de toda la vida bajo amenaza de recortes, para rehacer con ellas los excedentes de los generadores.

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Global Economic Prospects, January 2013: Assuring Growth Over the Medium Term

Según el informe Global Economic Prospects: Assuring Growth Over the Medium Term, publicado recientemente por el World Bank (WB), la situación económica mundial sigue siendo frágil y proclive a más decepciones, aunque el balance de los riesgos está ahora menos cargado hacia el lado negativo de lo que había estado en años anteriores.

 

El informe estima que el crecimiento mundial alcance una cifra relativamente débil de 2,3% y 2,4% en 2012 y 2013, respectivamente, y que se fortalezca gradualmente a 3,1% y 3,3% en 2014 y 2015. Ligeramente desviado de las previsiones que hizo el año pasado del 2,5% y 3,1% en 2012 y 2013, respectivamente.

Para retomar el nivel de crecimiento previo a la crisis, recomienda que los países en desarrollo una vez más deben poner énfasis en políticas de fomento de la productividad interna. Y si bien las naciones de ingreso alto continuarán enfrentando problemas debido a la reestructuración y la consolidación fiscal, la situación debería aligerarse levemente para permitir una lenta aceleración del crecimiento en los próximos años.

The Ascent of Autonomous Nations. The institutional advantages of being an EU member state

Many people will empathise with Antoine, the main protagonist in Sartre’s seminal work Nausea. What once felt normal and mundane can start to feel distinctly unusual. Existentially, our surroundings can start to appear differently to us and our perception changes. This can take place not only in the individual but also collectively; and collectively people’s perceptions of Europe appear to be changing.
 

The nation states of old are already losing sway to forces such as globalisation but, in antithesis to this, Europe is becoming more hyperlocal, with a new emphasis on cultures that we now realise that we must not lose. These conditions have led to a new drive to reinstate the historic nations of Europe, who had lost their ability to express themselves and to make decisions for themselves. Hence, the British are ever more strongly becoming the Welsh, the Scottish, the English and the Irish; the Belgians are increasingly the Flemish and Walloons, the Spaniard is replaced by the Basque, the Catalan and the Galician, and yet all within the wider concept of being European.

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"España debe salvarse a sí misma" por Ángel Pascual-Ramsay

Tras dos décadas de fondos europeos, España no ha construido un modelo productivo. El problema es la falta de dinamismo de nuestra economía y no la ausencia de estímulo, que apenas generaría crecimiento.

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The Coface economic publications: Panorama Switzerland

Investors have made it one of their favourite havens during this period of recurrent crises, from global finance to sovereign debt in the eurozone. Proverbial political stability, sound management of public finances, a complex but attractive tax system, many very innovative small businesses and a flexible labour market. Not forgetting, of course, a renowned financial market, making it a major player on the international scene in wealth management activities. These are strengths which sometimes turn into weaknesses.

A very open economy, the Confederation has been faced with a sharp rise in the Swiss franc that only a bold pegging to the euro has been able to curb. Exporters have therefore been able to limit the damage, while reducing their costs and margins. But property has entered a dangerous area and although they are not inevitable, bubble risks cannot be excluded. Even though experts consider that the Swiss franc is still overvalued.

For banks, the main cog of the Swiss economy, times are less straightforward than in the past. The planned disappearance of banking secrecy, new international regulations, lower margins and increased risks of mortgage lending are all challenges. Highly concentrated between UBS and Crédit Suisse, the sector still represents 5 times the national wealth. It was 6.6 times the GDP in 2007.

And despite a strong presence abroad, a refocusing on the domestic market has taken place: assets realized within the Confederation have increased by 20% since 2007.

Nevertheless, this small highly competitive market where the consumer is demanding, with a high purchasing power, remains a test for export candidates. If they can play the quality and precision card to gain the trust of their partners, given a strong tradition of confidentiality, their margins could be substantial. And the country should gradually return to growth after a meagre increase of some 0.7% of GDP in 2012, thanks to increased household consumption.

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Boosting Competitiveness to Grow Out of Debt. Can Ireland Find a Way Back to Its Future?

This paper investigates the prospects for Ireland to grow its economy against the backdrop of high indebtedness. The paper uses vector autoregressive analysis to explore the interlinkages among competitiveness, exports, economic growth, and fiscal performance. The emerging conclusion is that Ireland, which has regained cost competitiveness following the crisis-driven fall in domestic prices, is poised to return to its path of strong exports and economic growth and lower imbalances provided that it maintains competitiveness, though a pickup in external demand is critical. Three main findings underpin this conclusion. First, external demand is an important driver of exports and also the single most important determinant of Ireland’s GDP and government revenue. Second, declines in price competitiveness, featured by real effective exchange rate (REER) appreciations, restrain exports and economic growth. Third, exports boost output, which in turn enhances fiscal performance.

Rebuilding Europe’s Competitiveness

This Report on Rebuilding Europe’s Competitiveness is published at a critical time for Europe, as the region struggles to emerge from one of its most difficult periods since World War II. Recent years have seen stagnating economic growth, rising unemployment leading to social tensions, and sovereign debt crises in several European countries, exacerbated by the fact that the future outlook remains uncertain. There is widespread agreement that the root causes of this prolonged crisis lie in the lack of competitiveness of many countries.

Over the past half-decade, the region has focused its efforts on addressing the most immediate challenges associated with the financial crisis and preventing the disintegration of the Eurozone. However, more recently Europe has started to implement deeper reforms to rebuild competitiveness, paving the way towards a more sustainable path of prosperity. More precisely, several European countries have adopted important reforms aimed at enhancing competitiveness such as measures to make public finance more sustainable, the banking system more reliable and efficient, mend dual labor markets, and increase the efficiency of product markets. Consequent and sustained implementation of these measures will be required in order to ensure their full impact. In this context, galvanizing the support of all stakeholders within society is critical for success.

Perfiles óptimos de objetivos competitivos en la función de compras y aprovisionamiento

Este trabajo analiza el efecto en los resultados empresariales de la estrategia de aprovisionamiento, concibiendo dicha estrategia como un perfil de objetivos competitivos básicos e introduciendo el concepto de importancia relativa de cada objetivo. Este enfoque revela, sobre una muestra de 180 empresas, que los resultados mejoran a medida que aumenta la importancia relativa de la flexibilidad y disminuye la de la reducción de inventarios y precios de compra. También sugiere que las empresas con mejores resultados son las que combinan calidad, cumplimiento de entregas y flexibilidad como objetivos prioritarios y dejan en un segundo plano la reducción de costes.

Javier González Benito

2013 State Business Tax Climate Index (USA)

The Tax Foundation’s 2013 edition represents the tax climate of each state as of July 1, 2012, the first day of the standard 2013 state fiscal year.

Innovación del modelo de negocio: creación de valor en tiempos de cambio

En este artículo, se hace hincapié en la innovación del modelo de negocio como una forma para que los directores generales y los empresarios generen nuevos ingresos y conserven los márgenes, concretamente en tiempos de cambios económicos. La innovación del modelo de negocio reside en la recombinación de los recursos existentes de una empresa y sus socios, y no precisa de una inversión significativa en I+D. Ofrecemos a los directivos y a los investigadores un manual básico sobre la innovación del modelo de negocio y ponemos énfasis en la importancia del pensamiento a nivel de sistema.

Reinventar el modelo de negocio para vender más barato. Aproximación al análisis comparado de las estrategias low cost

La primera reacción de las empresas a la demanda generalizada de bajos precios por parte de los clientes consiste en la reducción indiscriminada de los costes en toda la cadena de valor. Pero por importantes que sean estas medidas no tienen suficiente consistencia como para ser trasladadas convenientemente a los precios finales. Por eso, no queda más remedio que acometer procesos de innovación radicales que reinventen el modelo de negocio combinando de una forma distinta los procesos productivos; de esta manera, el abaratamiento conseguido en los costes podrá ser traducido en grandes rebajas en los precios finales que es lo que reclaman los consumidores.

Este artículo revisa los procesos de innovación requeridos para producir reducciones de costes que impacten de manera definitiva en los precios. La revisión conduce a plantear una propuesta metodológica para reinventar el modelo de negocio en base a innovaciones aplicadas a la producción, a la fórmula para obtener el beneficio y a los procesos. Finalmente, se realiza un análisis comparativo entre once empresas seleccionadas que operan bajo filosofía low cost, entre las que incluimos Mercadona, IKEA, ING, Zara y Mango, con el fin de medir la intensidad de cada una de las fuentes innovación.

Josep Francesc Valls
ESADE

Public recapitalisations and bank risk: evidence from loan spreads and leverage

A number of countries’ authorities put in place bank rescue packages using public funds in response to the global financial crisis. Were these public recapitalisations followed by a reduction of risk in banks’ loan books? To answer this question, in this paper the balance sheets and syndicated loan portfolios of 87 large internationally active banks, approximately half of which were rescued during the crisis, are analysed for the period 2000–10. Evidence is presented that banks that were later rescued took on higher risk in their loan books before the crisis than banks that were not, especially in their home markets. Although the riskiness of loan signings started diminishing across the board in 2009, we do not find consistent evidence that rescued banks reduced their risk relatively more than non rescued banks during the crisis.

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Key figures on Europe 2012

Key figures on Europe 2012 presents a selection of statistical data on Europe. Most data cover the European Union and its Member States, while some indicators are provided for other countries, such as members of EFTA, acceding and candidate countries to the European Union, Japan or the United States. This pocketbook treats the following areas: economy and finance; population; health; education; labour market; living conditions and social protection; industry, trade and services; agriculture, forestry and fisheries; international trade; transport; environment; energy; and science and technology.

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Global Powers of Retailing 2013

As consumers seek an integrated shopping experience across channels – and in some cases across geographies – retailers are being put to the test. How can they find a path to success that not only addresses the needs of their customers today, but is also flexible enough to continually evolve with rapidly evolving customer interest and expectations?
 
The 16th annual Global Powers of Retailing report identifies the 250 largest retailers around the world for the past fiscal year. But the report is much more than a list – it also examines these pressing trends for retailers to consider as they plan their growth strategies, provides a global economic outlook for retail, and discusses "Q ratio" – a way of drawing inferences about the future performance of retailers by examining current financial information.

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Las doce técnicas más eficaces para analizar a tu competencia

Si conoces a tu enemigo y te conoces a ti mismo, no debes temer el resultado de cien batallas. Si te conoces a ti mismo pero no al enemigo, por cada batalla ganada sufrirás también una derrota. Si no conoces ni al enemigo ni a ti mismo, sucumbirás en todas las batallas”. Estas sentencias del general chino Sun Tzu, recogidas en El arte de la guerra, del año 500 a. de C., bien pueden servirnos en la actualidad para comprender la importancia de conocer a nuestros competidores más directos.
 

Algo tan necesario que los gurús recomiendan hacer un análisis de la competencia de forma sistemática y no sólo de vez en cuando. Ésta es la única manera de conseguir un sistema realmente efectivo de información.

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Deux siècles de croissance économique: L’Europe à la poursuite des États-Unis

Bien que partant d’un niveau similaire de productivité et de PIB par tête au milieu du XIXe siècle, l’Europe s’est régulièrement éloignée de la frontière américaine, jusqu’à ce que sa productivité et son PIB par tête ne soit plus que la moitié du niveau américain en 1950. Le vigoureux rattrapage engagé par la suite a certes abouti à une quasi-convergence de la productivité européenne, mais celle du PIB par tête reste incomplète, le niveau de vie européen ne correspondant qu’aux trois quarts du niveau américain. L’analyse de deux siècles de croissance économique comparée entre l’Europe et les États-Unis peut donc se résumer en une question: comment l’Europe peut-elle être aujourd’hui si productive tout en étant si pauvre, et ce même lorsque l’on raisonne en termes de bien-être?

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Habermas, the Last European: A Philosopher's Mission to Save the EU

Jürgen Habermas has had enough. The philosopher is doing all he can these days to call attention to what he sees as the demise of the European ideal. He hopes he can help save it -- from inept politicians and the dark forces of the market.

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L'Allemagne face a la construction européenne

Le traité de Maastricht, signé le 7 février 1992, l'atmé le 2 décembre 1992 à une large maj orité par le Bundestag (543 oui, 17 non et 8 abstentions), s'inscrit dans la continuité de la construction européenne à laquelle l'Allemagne est associée depui la fondation de la communauté européenne du charbon et de l'acier en 1951. Les bonleversements politiques et économiques au sein de l'Europe centrale et orientale, la réunification allemande, l'attitude de la Bundesbank qui, en relevant ses taux d'intérêt, a mis en difficnlté le système monétail-e européen, édifié grâce à la coopération du président français Valéry Giscard d'Estaing et du chancelier allemand Helmut Schmidt, les réticences manifestes en Allemagne devant le projet de création d'une monnaie unique, invitent à s'interroger sur les positions allemandes face à la construction européenne. Cette analyse est particulièrement opportune puisque l'Allemagne a vécu en 1994 une année électorale marquante, avec notamment les élections au Parlement européen et les élections au Bundestag et qu'elle a assumé pour la première fois depuis la réunification la présidence de la communauté an cours du second semestre de 1994.

par Marie-Renée DIOT-DURIATTI

Professeur à l'Université de Picardie Jules Verne

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Why I Am Not an Austrian Economist

I was first introduced to Austrian economics during my senior year in high school, when I first read and enjoyed the writings of Mises and Rothbard. The summer before I began my undergraduate work at UC Berkeley, I was able to attend the 1989 Mises Institute summer seminar at Stanford, where I met Murray Rothbard and many of the leading Austrian economists for the first time. It is now eight years later; I have just completed my Ph.D. in economics at Princeton, and will be joining the faculty of the economics department at George Mason in the fall. I thus find this a natural point in my career to articulate precisely why I no longer consider myself an Austrian economist - as I certainly did eight years ago. 

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Economía China: Pasado, presente y futuro

Para valorar el desarrollo económico chino pasado, presente y futuro; estimo conveniente hacerlo desde una perspectiva dinámica comparativa. Lo haré desde las grandes cifras macroeconómicas, aunque a medio-largo plazo espero profundizar también en su microeconomía.

China inicia 1820 siendo la primera potencia económica del mundo, aunque acaba su guerra civil prácticamente como había terminado el siglo XVIII. Estos casi ciento cincuenta años de estancamiento económico finalizarían tras instaurarse la República Popular, con un resurgir mucho más pronunciado después de la reforma económica del año 1978.
 

China es la segunda potencia económica del mundo si atendemos al PIB nominal. Sin embargo, es todavía una economía pobre en términos de PIB per cápita, por debajo del puesto número 100. Las desigualdades sociales, rendimientos decrecientes generados por la burbuja inmobiliaria, industrias sobredimensionadas, una contaminación medioambiental insostenible, la desaceleración del sector exportador, una relación comercial desequilibrada con Estados Unidos, los controles de capitales, la devaluación artificial del reminbi (RMB), las elevadas tasas de ahorro o la intervención de los tipos de interés; constituyen hoy día desafíos inmediatos para el gigante asiático. Desafíos identificados por la teoría económica que no conviene ignorar, pero tampoco exagerar. China, no debemos perder nunca la perspectiva, es todavía una nación en desarrollo, con un amplio margen para las reformas y el crecimiento económico.

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Europe after the crisis: How to sustain a common currency

From the start, the euro has rested on a gamble. When European leaders opted for monetary union in 1992, they wagered that European economies would converge toward one another: the deficit-prone countries of southern Europe would adopt German economic standards—lower price inflation and wage growth, more saving, and less spending—and Germany would become a little more like them, by accepting more government and private spending and higher wage and price inflation. This did not occur. Now, with the euro in crisis, the true implications of this gamble are becoming clear.

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Cures for the Apathetic Investor

One of the most debilitating forms of emotion isn’t anger, fear or sadness, it’s apathy. An “I don’t care” attitude or an indifference to events caused Helen Keller to once say: “We may have found a cure for most evils; but we have found no remedy for the worst of them all, the apathy of human beings.”

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La creación de valor en la empresa familiar europea cotizada (2001‐2010)

La presencia de un grupo familiar como accionista relevante es también frecuente en las compañías cotizadas (Bukart y otros, 2003). En EEUU por ejemplo, un tercio de las empresas del S&P 500 son familiares (Anderson & Reebs, 2003) y en países como Asia o Latinoamerica los grupos familiares controlan más del 50% de las compañías cotizadas (Credit Suisse, 2011, Martínez y otros, 2007). Esta presencia es también muy relevante en Europa donde se estima que una gran mayoría de empresas cotizadas permanecen controladas por familias (La Porta, Lopez de Silanes, 1999) y donde además se demuestra cómo este control de la familia fundadora perdura una vez que ésta se retira de los puestos directivos (Burkart y otros, 2003).

Por este motivo, no es de extrañar que el análisis de la relación existente entre propiedad familiar y creación de valor se haya definido como “la búsqueda del Santo Grial” en el campo de la empresa familiar (Gomez‐Mejía, Cruz, Berrone y De Castro, 2011). A pesar de los numerosos esfuerzos de investigación dedicados a este tema en los últimos años, esta búsqueda no ha concluido pues el efecto final de esta relación es aún hoy objeto de gran controversia. Esta controversia se refleja también en la visión que la opinión pública en Europa mantiene sobre las empresas familiares cotizadas. Por una parte, se admira y se respeta a empresas que han sido capaces de prosperar en el tiempo bajo el control de una familia, resaltando la fuerza de sus valores y su orientación a largo plazo. Por otra, se considera que las distintas prioridades de los accionistas familiares con respecto a otros accionistas genera un conflicto de intereses que supone un obstáculo a la creación de valor.

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El director financiero y la decisión de inversión en la empresa española

Conocer cómo los directores financieros de las empresas valoran las inversiones tiene interés en sí mismo más allá de la curiosidad por ver lo que otros hacen y cómo lo hacen. En este trabajo aportamos algunos de los resultados extraídos tras analizar una encuesta efectuada en 2011 a 140 directores financieros de empresas españolas. La principal conclusión del estudio es el divorcio existente entre teoría y práctica de la valoración de inversiones en la empresa. No obstante, cuando se abunda en el “gap” y se intentan explicar las causas del desfase con elementos nucleares de la valoración, como las oportunidades de crecimiento, el divorcio puede ser más aparente que real.

Universia Business Review

My own New Year's Concert: Joe Hisaishi in Budokan