The widespread failure of
economists to forecast the financial crisis that erupted in 2008 has
much to do with faulty models. This lack of sound models meant that
economic policymakers and central bankers received no warning of what
was to come.
As George Akerlof and I argue in our recent book Animal Spirits ,
the current financial crisis was driven by speculative bubbles in the
housing market, the stock market, and energy and other commodities
markets. Bubbles are caused by feedback loops: rising speculative prices
encourage optimism, which encourages more buying, and hence further
speculative price increases – until the crash comes.
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