Ponencia de José Maria Gay de Liébana: "España se escribe con E de endeudamiento... Radiografía de un país abocado al abismo"

The rise of the African consumer

Africa’s consumer-facing industries are expected to grow by $400 billion by 2020, representing the continent’s largest business opportunity. But many companies don’t know how to translate this potential into action, due to a dearth of market research. But that is changing.

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Acción humana empresarial en la obra de Peter Drucker

Peter Drucker es uno de los más importantes autores en temas de management. Se le considera el fundador de la gerencia moderna. La Teoría de las Organizaciones, una importante rama de la Teoría de la Gerencia, siempre requerirá un punto de vista antropológico y un detallado estudio de las acciones humanas, por este motivo, este documento sugiere una aproximación al estudio de los principios y valores de las acciones humanas de los empresarios en los planteamientos de Peter Drucker. Para alcanzar este cometido, se adelanta una consideración de sus esquemas de desarrollo del capitalismo. Además se revisan los supuestos de ética identificados por Drucker, a fin de construir una axiología de la acción humana de este agente. Un detallado análisis sobre la interiorización, la acción empresarial del empresario y sus consecuencias y efectos se desarrolla con el propósito de concluir cuáles son los principios y valores que impulsan esta conducta tan especializada.

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Capacidad de compra e innovación

A medida que los efectos de una economía turbulenta se propagan prácticamente por todos los sectores, las compañías tratan de obtener liquidez. No existe una vía más rápida para generar dinero sin tardanza y sin penosos despidos de personal que hallar la manera de economizar costos en la gestión de compras.

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China's Digital Champions

China is now by far the largest online market in the world, with an estimated total of 510 million users as at the end of 2011, and projections that this figure could reach 750 million by the end of 2015. Home-grown local competitors dominate the market, while foreign players have struggled to succeed. While Chinese champions adopt elements of proven global models, they tailor and innovate creatively to meet China’s unique needs.

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The Enduring Elixir of Economic Growth: Xavier Sala i Martin on the wealth and poverty of nations

Xavier Sala-i-Martin interviewed by Brian Snowdon.

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Households’ position in the financial crisis in Iceland

We utilise a unique nationwide household-level database to analyse how households’ financial position evolved in the run-up to and aftermath of the financial crisis in Iceland. The main focus of our analysis is to assess how the share of indebted households in financial distress evolved and how it was affected by debt restructuring measures and court decisions. We also analyse the share of indebted homeowners in negative housing equity and those in the highly vulnerable situation of being in distress and negative housing equity simultaneously. The analysis suggests that the share of indebted households in distress grew from 12½ per cent in early 2007 to 23½ per cent on the eve of the banking collapse in the autumn of 2008, when the lion’s share of the balance sheet shocks had already taken place. The extent of acute distress nearly quadrupled over the same period. Forbearance efforts provided temporary breathing space, but the share in distress is estimated to have peaked at 27½ per cent in autumn 2009, before declining to 20 per cent at yearend 2010 due to policy and legal interventions. Financial distress is found to be inversely related to income and age, as well as being higher among families with children and those with foreigndenominated debt than among childless couples and those with ISK-denominated loans only. Parents of every fifth child in Iceland were in distress at year-end 2010. The incidence of negative housing equity increased dramatically, from roughly 6 to 37 per cent of indebted homeowners, over the four-year period. Negative housing equity is more widespread among high-income than low-income households. The share of homeowners simultaneously in distress and negative equity rose from roughly 1 to 14 per cent but declined to 10 per cent by the end of the period. Middleincome families with children, most of which had foreign-denominated loans, and low-income singles seem especially vulnerable. Some of the seeds of households’ financial difficulties were sown by imprudent lending in 2007 and 2008, when 16 per cent of the total amount of new loans was granted to households already in distress. Up to 34 per cent of households in distress at yearend 2010 were granted loans in 2007-2008, when they were already financially distressed.

Global Risks 2012

Economic imbalances and social inequality risk reversing the gains of globalization, warns the World Economic Forum in its report Global Risks 2012. These are the findings of a survey of 469 experts and industry leaders, indicating a shift of concern from environmental risks to socioeconomic risks compared to a year ago. Respondents worry that further economic shocks and social upheaval could roll back the progress globalization has brought, and feel that the world’s institutions are ill-equipped to cope with today’s interconnected, rapidly evolving risks. The findings of the survey fed into an analysis of three major risk cases: Seeds of Dystopia; Unsafe Safeguards and the Dark Side of Connectivity. The report analyses the top 10 risks in five categories - economic, environmental, geopolitical, societal and technological - and also highlights "X Factor" risks, the wild card threats which warrant more research, including a volcanic winter, cyber neotribalism and epigenetics, the risk that the way we live could have harmful, inheritable effects on our genes. Key crisis management lessons from Japan’s earthquake, tsunami and nuclear disasters are highlighted in a special chapter.

The Global Competitiveness Report 2012–2013

The Global Competitiveness Report 2012–2013 is being released amid a long period of economic uncertainty. The tentative recovery that seemed to be gaining ground during 2010 and the first half of 2011 has given way to renewed concerns. The global economy faces a number of significant and interrelated challenges that could hamper a genuine upturn after an economic crisis half a decade long in much of the world, especially in the most advanced economies. The persisting financial difficulties in the periphery of the euro zone have led to a long-lasting and unresolved sovereign debt crisis that has now reached the boiling point. The possibility of Greece and perhaps other countries leaving the euro is now a distinct prospect, with potentially devastating consequences for the region and beyond. This development is coupled with the risk of a weak recovery in several other advanced economies outside of Europe—notably in the United States, where political gridlock on fiscal tightening could dampen the growth outlook. Furthermore, given the expected slowdown in economic growth in China, India, and other emerging markets, reinforced by a potential decline in global trade and volatile capital flows, it is not clear which regions can drive growth and employment creation in the short to medium term.

This year’s Report features a record number of 144 economies, and thus continues to be the most comprehensive assessment of its kind. It contains a detailed profile for each of the economies included in the study as well as an extensive section of data tables with global rankings covering over 100 indicators. This Report remains the flagship publication within the Forum’s Global Benchmarking Network, which produces a number of research studies that mirror the increased integration and complexity of the world economy.

A tale of three countries: recovery after banking crises

• Iceland, Ireland and Latvia experienced similar developments before the crisis. However, the crisis hit Latvia harder than any other country, and Ireland also suffered heavily, while Iceland exited the crisis with the smallest fall in employment, despite the greatest shock to the financial system.

• There were marked differences in policy mix: currency collapse in Iceland but not in Latvia, letting banks fail in Iceland but not in Ireland, and the introduction of strict capital controls only in Iceland. The speed of fiscal consolidation was fastest in Latvia and slowest in Ireland. Recovery has started in all three countries.

• Iceland seems to have the right policy mix. Internal devaluation in Ireland and Latvia through wage cuts did not work, because private-sector wages hardly changed. Productivity increased significantly in Ireland and moderately in Latvia, but only because employment fell more than output, with harmful social consequences.

• The experience with the collapse of the gigantic Icelandic banking system suggests that letting banks fail when they had a faulty business model is the right choice.

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¿Es relevante la prima ofrecida en una OPA en las decisiones de venta de los accionistas?

El objetivo de este trabajo es analizar la influencia que tiene la prima ofrecida en una OPA sobre la decisión de los accionistas de aceptarla o rechazarla. Ni la evidencia empírica ni los desarrollos teóricos ofrecen un apoyo claro a la idea de que cuanto mayor sean las primas mayores serán las probabilidades de éxito de la operación. El modelo empírico que desarrollamos para el caso español tampoco ofrece un resultado concluyente ya que este efecto dependería, entre otras variables, de factores tales como si los accionistas de la empresa objetivo han alcanzado o no un acuerdo previo con el comprador.

Pedro Durá e Inés Pérez-Soba

Universia Business Review

“Tintorerías de posguerra” e innovación organizativa en Inditex: una perspectiva contractual de la gestión lean de la cadena de suministro

La evolución reciente del mercado, con cambios de preferencias más frecuentes y exigencias de personalización crecientes, ha puesto de manifiesto la fragilidad de aquellas empresas cuya externalización offshore no ha considerado los costes de coordinar proveedores con localizaciones lejanas. El artículo analiza este problema utilizando el caso de Inditex; una empresa que, inspirándose en las tintorerías españolas de los años cuarenta, ha reformulado la gestión de su cadena de suministro dando respuesta al desfase provocado por los rápidos cambios en la moda y la limitada capacidad de reacción de las infraestructuras industriales. La estrategia de Inditex, con importantes lecciones para otros sectores, le ha permitido beneficiarse de unos menores costes de producción reduciendo al mismo tiempo el lead time y los costes de coordinación inherentes a la personalización de los productos.

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Citywire 1000: (Data From: 30/6/2009 - 30/6/2012)

Guide to world's best fund managers analyses more than 7500 managers in 35 territories to show the leaders in risk-adjusted performance.

"Estrategias empresariales para generar valor en tiempo de crisis" por Oriol Amat

Tras describir las causas más frecuentes del fracaso empresarial el autor aborda las características que presentan las conocidas como empresas gacela y como empresas centenarias, el éxito de las cuales está relacionado con las personas, la estrategia y la operativa de la empresa. Las empresas gacela consiguen grandes crecimientos en los ingresos y en los beneficios continuados, con un perfil que se caracteriza por la apuesta por los recursos humanos y por la excelencia. Las empresas centenarias destacan por su actitud proactiva a lo largo de los años para adaptarse a los cambios, por su visión general de negocio a largo plazo, por la importancia del proceso sucesorio y por la innovación permanente. Cerrando el escrito, Amat propone varias medidas y estrategias que, en su opinión pueden llevarse a cabo en el actual momento para aprovechar las oportunidades de recesión.

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¿Antropólogos en la empresa?: A propósito de la (mal)llamada cultura de empresa

Las relaciones entre la antropología y la empresa han sido históricamente difíciles. El desconocimiento mútuo y la desconfianza han provocado que muchos antropólogos, aún hoy en día, consideren la incursión en el ámbito empresarial como sospechosa y casi un anatema o, cuando menos, complicada desde un punto de vista ético y de aplicabilidad. El artículo pretende discutir y desenmascarar la falacia de tales temores y reivindicar la posibilidad y la necesidad de una antropología industrial y de la empresa. Para ello, a modo de ejemplo, se lleva a cabo una revisión de uno de los conceptos más en uso en las últimas décadas en la literatura managerial, el de cultura de empresa, acompañada de la crítica y las propuestas correspondientes desde una perspectiva antropológica.

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Crisis económica y dinámica del ajuste inmobiliario en España

En este artículo se presenta una visión de la situación y perspectivas del sector inmobiliario en España. El objetivo no es hacer un recorrido exhaustivo por todos los aspectos del mercado inmobiliario español sino que se centra en algunos puntos que se consideran críticos y que ofrecen una perspectiva sintética del sector. El artículo analiza la situación actual y los factores que determinan el ritmo del ajuste del sector inmobiliario al nuevo equilibrio post-burbuja.

José García Montalvo
Catedrático de Economía Universitat Pompeu Fabra
e Investigador del IVIE

The Flotilla Effect. Europe’s small economies through the eye of the storm

André Gide, the great French novelist, was reported to have declared on his deathbed: “I believe in the virtue of small nations. I believe in the virtue of small numbers. The world will be saved by the few.”1 During the time of the Great Moderation, the long lingering worldwide economic boom of the nineties and the 2000s, those words seemed to develop an almost prophetic air. Small and nimble open economies like Ireland, Iceland and the Baltic States became the poster-boys of globalisation, much as the Asian tigers had been a generation before. Countries the size of Norway and Iceland topped virtually every virtuous league table in existence from GDP per capita to indices of wellbeing and peacefulness.

Now, as the economic conditions have turned, so too has the tide of ideas. The travails of small countries have made big headlines worldwide. The sovereign debt crisis in Greece, the banking collapse in Iceland, the property crash in Dubai and Ireland‟s fall from “Celtic Tiger” grace have cumulatively led to a shift in the intellectual terms of trade. This was perhaps best summed up by an epithet attributed to Paul Volcker, the former Federal Reserve Chairman (with a sideways nod to Roy Schneider‟s character in the movie Jaws): “In turbulent times it‟s better to be on the bigger boat.”

Can the small survive and thrive through the present storm? This is no small matter for any of us. We live in a world of small states: approximately two thirds of the voting power in the UN and the EU belong to countries with less than 15 million citizens. And in Europe there is no shortage of candidates to join their ranks: Scotland, Wales, the Basque Country, Catalonia and Flanders, to name a few. If small countries are thought to founder on the overhanging rocks of economies of scale, then independence, for some, will remain a risk not worth taking.

In this short report, we seek then to ask a simple question: how does country size affect economic output? Section one gives an overview of the literature of the economics of country size. We use a standard tool of econometrics: a cross-country regression of population size versus real GDP growth, both before and during the recent crisis, to ascertain the relationship, if any, between them. Section two provides commentary on the policy implications of the recent economic crisis as it has particularly affected small countries. Finally, in section three, we seek to draw out the implications of the above for Europe in general, for existing small countries and for those candidate countries for Europe‟s “internal enlargement”.

"The Flaws of Finance" by James Montier

This paper is based on a speech delivered at the 65th Annual CFA Institute Conference in Chicago on May 6, 2012.